Friday, September 30, 2016

September Special: Content #Key from Sep to Dec $25, $15 Savings

September Special: Sep-Dec $25, $15 Savings

Save $15 on Insights key. Enhance your understanding of trends, leverage, and time through the message of the market. This message is tracked by computers, not human behavior.

Rising volatility is confusing both bulls and bears. This makes understanding the message of the market even more important. The message of the market, subtle and quiet in comparison to the thundering voices descending from the pulpit of opinions, is often hidden in plain sight by the daily distractions of life.

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09/23/16 #USTreasuryBond Chart #Free

US TBonds Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix and for subscribers.

While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse defensive global capital flows regardless of the hype. Defensive flows likely includes US Treasury bonds until the wolf pack culls the herd of weak European and Asian debt. Only after they're thinned will the focus turn to the US. Gentleman could very well prefer government bonds, notes, and bills at least in the initial stages of the next panic.

What Mellow omitted is that investors prefer the public sector (bonds) when confidence in the private sector (stocks) is failing. Investors preferred bonds in 1929 because confidence in the private sector was failing. While gentlemen could prefer bonds in the initial stages of the next panic, they'll like turn on them as confidence in the public sector falters from an already shaken position. This will burn a majority populated by central bankers and followers of today's bullish headline hype rather quickly.


Subscriber Comments

Chart



T-Bonds focused bull opp generated 15% annualized gain (excluding dividends) from the the first week of January to first week of September (see TLT Matrix). This opp recorded impressive 172% and 92% annualized gains on the second week of January and February, respectively. While the majority likely still 'loves' bonds, they ignore the computer's message of consolidation, often a precursor of a focused bear opportunity. Smart money is watching bonds from the sidelines.

TLT Matrix


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Crazy Solutions to Avert The Next Crisis Will Rise Going Forward

News
There's people in high places, desperate to retain power, listening to crazy ideas like this. How this stimulates aggregate demand while the cost of government, i.e. taxation, skyrockets. In addition to foolish ideas, a banking crisis in Europe will send not only the European economy but also the global economy down hard in 2017. Soon the majority will realize soon realize that their confidence in the central planners of the world to avert a crisis is misplaced.

Headline: Summers Floats Idea of Sustained Government Stock Purchases

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers floated the idea of continuous purchases of stocks as a potential ingredient in a recipe for the developed world to strengthen economies struggling with subdued growth and inflation.

Among the proposals that deserve “serious reflection” is the purchase of a “wider range of assets on a sustained and continuing basis," Summers said in a lecture at a Bank of Japan conference in Tokyo Friday. "I’m not prepared to make a policy recommendation at this point,” he told reporters later.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

00/23/16 #Cotton Chart

Cotton Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Cotton's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Baltic Dry Index Trend Suggests Collapse Global Trade

News
The hunt for money is collapsing global trade at the fastest pace since 2009. The sharp decline in the Baltric Dry Index (chick for chart) since 2011 reflects this collapse.Amazingly, while World Trade Organization's warning of a dramatic slowing of global trade, an observation confirmed by Economic Activity Composite (EAC), the majority (the public) remains dangerously oblivious to it.This leaves an unprepared public as the bagholders of the next economic transition.

The global hunt for money to save socialism and western societies will accelerate after 2016 as the global economy collapses. Acceleration of taxation will only exacerbate the global contraction of trade that few recognize today.

Headline: The Surprising Relevance of the Baltic Dry Index

On January 11th of this year, online financial circles lit up with dire news. “Commerce between Europe and North America has literally come to a halt,” one blogger wrote. “For the first time in known history, not one cargo ship is in-transit in the North Atlantic between Europe and North America. . . . It is a horrific economic sign; proof that commerce is literally stopped.”


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, September 29, 2016

09/23/16 #Corn Chart #Free

Corn Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Corn's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Chart


Corn's focused bear opportunity has produced a 3% annualized gain for the bears since the second week of August. This opp recorded an impressive 94% gain for the bears on the fourth week of August. Disciplined bears that booked profits in August are letting their profits run while watching TIME.

CORN Matrix


A weekly close below 17.68 supports the down impulse, while a close above 19.17 could reverse it. A reversal favors testing of higher resistance.

On Balance Volume (OBV), a crude measure of trend energy, suggests distribution. This favors the bears.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Invisible Hand Will Make Deutsche Bank and Politicians Look Bad

News
Worries about Deutsche Bank (DB) go back years. It's become the biggest worry in the world only because Merkel foolishly, more likely cluelelssly, said Nein to bailout this week. Relentless Selling and the mass exodus of prominent hedge funds will force a realistic look at DB's solvency (soon) or Merkel to change her hard line position.



Headline: Why is Deutsche Bank now the biggest worry in the financial world?

Since the credit crunch in 2008, banks have been struggling to adapt to their new environment. Low interest rates coupled with meagre yields in the financial markets mean banks can generate fewer profits from the deposits they collect, the loans they dole out, and the market services they provide.

While government schemes such as Funding for Lending have propped up some of the banks’ operations, they have dampened activity in other areas, for example by subduing market volatility with vast quantitative easing programmes.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.