Friday, March 24, 2017

#Matrix Update $SPY $TLT $GLD $SLV $UUP $FXE

The Matrix
The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities to buy or sell agricultural commodities, US treasury bonds, energy, foreign exchange markets, commodities, precious metals, livestock, lumber, and domestic and international equity markets.

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The Matrix


Please consult Understanding The Matrix for further discussion.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

03/17/17 #Sentiment Model $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

The Sentiment model, an excellent standalone trading tool for US stocks include The Matrix, should be used by investors looking to outperform the buy-and-hold investment strategy. The model produces the following observations: (1) bull and bear phases have produced average annualized returns of 27% and 61% since 1992 (see Sentiment Model Output); this significantly outperforms the 6% annualized return generated by buy-and-hold over the same period, and (2) stock returns are clearly not random as taught by popular academic theories.

Sentiment Model Output 2015 and 2016

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Healthcare Bill Not Driving The Trend In US Stocks

News
The success or failure of healthcare bill is only an excuse for consolidation in stocks. Headlines like excuses rather than causes, so expect this narrative or some other political permutation to be repeated at length until consolidation ends. The Dow has support 20,600 and 20,200. A weekly close below the form favors continuation of the decline to 20,200. A close above 20,600 implies strength despite a growing number of bearish calls on stocks.

Please consult the latest Dow Industrial Chart for further discussion of the trends.

Headline: Wall St opens higher; healthcare bill vote awaited

(Reuters) - Wall Street opened higher on Friday, helped by a rise in technology shares and ahead of a closely watched vote on a healthcare bill seen as a test of President Donald Trump's ability to pass his legislative agenda through Congress.

It was not clear late on Thursday evening that Trump and Republican leaders had enough support to pass the bill, with Trump warning lawmakers from his party that he will leave Obamacare in place if they do not rally around him.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

03/17/17 #Cotton Chart $BAL

Cotton Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Cotton's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

The Matrix updates the the progress of this trade as well 32 other markets. It also includes Intermarket analysis that includes market leadership and risk appetite, a true economic activity composite for the United States (EAC), and long-term concentration (cycles) and direction for US stocks, bonds, and commodities. The later is important for long-term timing.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, March 23, 2017

The Public Is Still Too Afraid To Buy The Decline

News
US stocks’ short-term trend, a sideways consolidation since March 1st, remains a function of price, leverage, sentiment, and time. The Matrix warned a few weeks ago that sentiment (model) fell out of alignment with price and leverage. The resulting shift in trend energy transitioned the trend from long-term mark up (rally) to short-term cause building (consolidation) in early March. The public, still frightened by warnings of Armageddon from the same experts that have been forecasting crashes for months/years, remain pessimistic towards stocks. This defined by the sentiment model, not opinion.

Don’t expect the majority (public) to setup and buy the decline or sideways chop. They’ll do that only after the uptrend gets so hot that even a river boat gambler would be fearful of the odds. Time still places consolidation into April/May. Watch for realignment of sentiment.

Headline: US STOCKS-Wall St opens flat; all eyes on healthcare vote

March 23 (Reuters) - Wall Street was little changed in early trading on Thursday amid signs that President Donald Trump is struggling to get enough votes to pass a healthcare bill in Congress.

Trump was set to make a final push to secure the votes to begin dismantling Obamacare in the House of Representatives, with signs that enough Republicans might defect to jeopardize one of his top legislative priorities.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

03/17/17 #Gold Chart $GLD

Gold Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Gold's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the The Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

03/17/17 #AustralianDollar Chart $FXA

Aussie Dollar Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Aussie's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.