Friday, August 26, 2016

COT Matrix Update #COTMatrix

COT Matrix
The COT Matrix, an array that display the message of Price, Leverage (DI) & Sentiment (CAP), and Time, helps subscribers recognize buying and selling opportunities in agricultural commodities, bonds, energy, foreign exchange, commodities, precious metals, livestock, and domestic and international equity markets.

COT Matrix

Select Market



Date0 Columns Output

Computer now bolds Date0 output to help investors/traders to quickly identify when bull and bear opportunities focus.

COT Matrix will be reposted for prices changes.

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08/19/16 #Review of #Copper

Copper
While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse global capital flows regardless of the hype. Copper, an economically-sensitive commodity, has been leading a cyclical downturn in the global economy for months. While this and other bearish commodity trends are well recognized among industry leaders, they continues to elude the public, a majority that generally believes the US economy remains on solid footing. The majority, a day late and dollar short in terms of timing, will panic only after undeniable economic contraction completely invalidates their beliefs.

Insights constructs and interprets the message of the market, the flow of sentiment, price, leverage, and time in order to define trends within the cycle of accumulation and distribution for subscribers.

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#TheFed Back in Focus For The Majority

News
An upticking economy since late 2015 could easily be view as the 'Goldilocks' moment for the Fed to continue its domestic liftoff policy (chart). The delay of liftoff, a decision driven by international rather than domestic concerns, could easily lead to a lot of talk and little action.

Regardless of the Fed's rate decision in September, there'll be enormous pressure for them to ease when the global economy enters full-blown liquidation in 2017. The majority, whom thinks the Fed can 'fix' anything, does not care about the business cycle; business cycles do not exits because the economy can be easily controlled by central planning. The fact that history's panics and crisis from the failure of central planning does not influence their strong beliefs. This is why the majority becomes the bagholders of trend transitions common to panics and crises.

Chart


Headline: Fed will hike rates at ‘Goldilocks moment’ in September, Barclays economist says

Markets are betting the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its September meeting, but Barclays Investment Bank Economist Robert Martin believes policymakers will pull the trigger next month, taking advantage of a "Goldilocks moment."

That is certainly a contrarian call. Market participants currently see just a 21 percent chance the Federal Open Market Committee will increase rates when it meets Sept. 20-21, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.


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Thursday, August 25, 2016

08/19/16 #AustralianDollar Chart

Aussie Dollar Chart
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Aussie's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix, Review of Australian Dollar for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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08/25/16 #Review of #Sentiment #SP500 #Free

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish.This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

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Investors baffled by 'unexpected' strength in US stocks should be following sentiment. Sentiment's leadership of price, a tendency largely misunderstood and ignored by the majority, makes it valuable timing tool for all (see Understanding Sentiment).

Subscribers Comments

Summary

The sentiment oscillator (LTSO) defines a bull phase since the first week of July (see trend). The bull phase, a positive oscillation of LTSO, should push sentiment from pessimism to optimism (see Bull % and trend). The majority, a close-minded group driven by emotions, flawed instincts and bad analysis, drives this highly-consistent, inverse relationship.

The bull phase(see sentiment) since the first week of July and focused bull opportunity (see COT Matrix) since the second week of June, a powerful bullish combination that will defy the majority's bearish expectations, favors the bulls.

Interactive Charts: SPY, $SPX

Bull%

Bull% has risen to 49.8% (chart 1). The rising trend from 36% defines increasing optimism towards stocks and up impulse since the third week of May. The bears, a group that tightened risk management as pessimism rose in May, are waiting for for strong to extreme optimism and/or the return of bear phase (see trend). Bull%'s neutral reading and bullish trend refute claims that US stocks are dangerous. Opinion-driven analysis is dangerous!

Chart 1


Trend

The long-term trend oscillator (LTSO) defines a bull phase (green box) and impressive 30% annualized return from 2099 to 2175 since the first week of July (chart 2). This phase recorded an impressive 264% annualized return after the second week of July. Disciplined bulls that booked partial profits and reduced risk in July are letting their profits run until the message of the market changes.

The bulls control the trend until reversed by a bearish crossover. Compression, the final phase of the CEC cycle, generally anticipates this change.

Chart 2


Concentration

The unwinding of extreme pessimism, an intermediate cycle from fear to greed and transfer of ownership in which the minority (strong hands) fades the actions of the majority (weak hands), continues today (chart 3). This cycle will end when WASo, a composite measure of sentiment towards US stocks, will generate a minor or major buying opportunity (MnBO or MBO) in 2016 or 2017.

WASo can fall below -1.25 during periods of extreme pessimism. Extreme pessimism, a setup observed only three times since 1987 (October 1998, March 2008, and most recently February 2016), suggests that selling is closer to an end than beginning. While 'closer' implies rising stock prices ahead, it doesn't eliminate caution and patience. MBOs don't always mark intermediate-term bottoms for US stocks. An MBO of -1.34 in March 2008, for example, marked continuation of the bear market until 2009. The less concentrated MBO of -0.95 marked the bottom in March 2009. Investors must at least recognize the possibility of similar outcome unfolding from 2016 to 2017.

Chart 3


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#Socialism Crushing The American Dream

News
Declining standard of livings, closely linked to the rising burden of socialism, is sending jobs overseas, discouraging capital formation in the United States (investment), and encouraging the politics of corruption and greed since the 1970's. Younger generations, struggling to find higher paying jobs to start and support families are living with their parents longer. Marriage and birth rates, as a result, are falling rapidly. Socialism, the grand experiment of 'fairness' positioned to help families discover the American Dream, has been the great destroyer of it.

Nothing will change as long as the majority embraces socialism or at least fears change from it. That is why crash and burn, the failure of socialism promises, must happen first.

Headline: More Young Adults Live With Their Parents Now Than During the Recession

Family togetherness isn’t just for Thanksgiving dinner. More young adults are now living with their parents than during the recession, according to U.S. Census data.

The share of 18-to-34-year-olds living with their parents was 31.5% as of March 2015, up from 31.4% last year, according to a report from the Commerce Department on Monday. In 2005, just 27% of young adults lived with their parents, a number that has climbed pretty steadily since then.


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