|US TBonds Chart|
US Treasury Bond's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in the COT Matrix and for subscribers.
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While coordinated 'stimulus' supports a countertrend rally of commodities foreshadowed by negative concentration discussed months ago, it won't reverse defensive global capital flows regardless of the hype. Defensive flows likely includes US Treasury bonds until the wolf pack culls the herd of weak European and Asian debt. Only after they're thinned will the focus turn to the US. Gentleman could very well prefer government bonds, notes, and bills at least in the initial stages of the next panic.
What Mellow omitted is that investors prefer the public sector (bonds) when confidence in the private sector (stocks) is failing. Investors preferred bonds in 1929 because confidence in the private sector was failing. While gentlemen could prefer bonds in the initial stages of the next panic, they'll like turn on them as confidence in the public sector falters from an already shaken position. This will burn a majority populated by central bankers and followers of today's bullish headline hype rather quickly.
T-Bonds focused bull opp generated 15% annualized gain (excluding dividends) from the the first week of January to first week of September (see TLT Matrix). This opp recorded impressive 172% and 92% annualized gains on the second week of January and February, respectively. While the majority likely still 'loves' bonds, they ignore the computer's message of consolidation, a precursor of a focused bear opportunity.
Smart money is still watching bonds from the sidelines.
Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.