Friday, August 18, 2017

Crude Oil Review $USO

Crude Oil
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

Crude Oil's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Thursday, August 17, 2017

There's A Big Difference Between A Stock Market Crash and Bear Trap

News
Resignation of Gary Cohn would be a serious blow to Trump's plans to revamp the tax code and other pro-business reforms. While many view these reforms as a driver of the "Trump rally", they ignore the unseen reality of safe haven capital flows from Europe to the United States. The Euro's recent countertrend rally, a move that's triggered some repatriation of profits from the US to Europe, continues to leave stocks vulnerable to further declines and possibly panic selling in August and September. This vulnerability remains until some yet unknown headline reignites old worries about the long-term stability of the euro zone. Smart money understands they have not gone away and will aggressively fade (buy) extreme pessimism of the majority. Although growing pessimism will be viewed as bearish for stocks by the media, it will be bullish for those that understand. Watch the Sentiment Model closely in the coming weeks.

Headline: Team Trump losing Gary Cohn could crash the stock market, warns Yale professor

That’s the ominous warning Yale School of Management professor Jeffrey Sonnenfeld delivered to CNBC on Thursday morning, just as a triple-digit decline on the Dow industrials DJIA, -1.24% put the blue chips’ four-day win streak in jeopardy.

He was referring to White House economic adviser Gary Cohn, who, as a Jewish man, was reportedly “upset” and “disgusted” with the president’s weak response to the deadly white nationalist rally in Charlottesville.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Chart of The Day #DowIndustrials $DIA #Free

Chart of The Day
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February, Mark Twain

There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can, Mark Twain


Subscriber Comments

Let trading discipline, not opinion, driven decision-making for US stocks. US stocks have entered cause building. Cause building represents the marking of TIME, a period of accumulation or distribution. Investors either bullish or bearish during cause have been corrupted by opinion. There are simply too many examples to count on the Internet. A close below the July 31st gap with force breaks the ice of support. This triggers additional selling to the second layer of support. Additional selling, however, doesn’t necessarily reverse the aligned up impulse.

Chart
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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Sentiment Model $SPX

Sentiment
The old American idiom of a day late and dollar short is an phrase easily applied to majority's ability to time (buy or sell) US stocks. The majority, influenced more by instinctual behavioral tendency of the individual to seek acceptance of an emotionally-driven crowd than act independently in the minority, views rising and falling stocks prices as bullish and bearish. This tendency that drives them chase when probabilities favor fading relegates the majority as the consistent bagholders of history's panics and trend changes.

Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”, John Templeton

The Sentiment model, an excellent standalone trading tool for US stocks include The Matrix, should be used by investors looking to outperform the buy-and-hold investment strategy. The model produces the following observations: (1) bull and bear phases have produced average annualized returns of 26% and 60% and 32% and -7% since 1992 and 2017; these returns significantly outperform buy-and-hold (B&H) average annualized returns of 8% and 7% over the same periods, and (2) stock returns are clearly not random as taught by popular academic theories.

Sentiment Model Output 2015 and 2016

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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Chart of the Day #Intermarket Trends Junk and High Grade Bonds

Chart of The Day
OCTOBER: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks in. The other are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February, Mark Twain

There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it and when he can, Mark Twain


Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Wednesday, August 16, 2017

Politics Creates Noise Within The Primary Trends

News
While politics creates noise within the short-term (daily trend), it has very little influence over the primary trend (weekly and monthly trends). US stocks entered cause building over the short-term not because of politics but rather the cyclical flow of energy. Cause, the building of energy to break higher or lower, can be bullish or bearish. The characterization of which is determined by the alignment of the primary trend (price and volume). As long as the primary trend, defined by weekly and monthly charts, remains up, the bears, even the high priced ones screaming top, will go silent if the market breaks out to new highs with force. This is not a forecast but rather than observation.

Headline: Wall Street pares gains after Trump disbands two advisory councils

(Reuters) - U.S. stocks pared gains on Wednesday afternoon after President Donald Trump said he is disbanding his manufacturing council as well as the strategy and policy forum.

Trump's move comes after two more CEOs resigned from the manufacturing council on Wednesday in response to the president's comments on the Charlottesville violence over the weekend.


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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.

Australian Dollar Review #Aussie $FXA

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Aussie Dollar Review
Those that view the message of the market on daily basis are likely confused by trading noise. While trading noise contributes to the long-term trends, it does not define them. Human behavior tries to explain trading noise as a meaningful trend. This confuses the majority which, in turn, contributes to their role as bagholders of trend transitions.

The Aussie's overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, defined and are discussed in the COT Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments



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Market-driven money flow, trend, and intermarket analysis is provided by an Insights key.